Keywords
reconnaissance
safety
UAV
How to Cite
Abstract
The paper examines how meteorological conditions affect all components of the DTII chain (Detection–Tracking–Identification–Incapacitation) in counter-UAS operations and tests whether the Russian Armed Forces deliberately time mass Shahed strikes to exploit favorable atmospheric phenomena. The review section summarizes the weather vulnerabilities of radar, EO/IR, acoustic, and RF sensing, highlighting near-surface temperature inversions and radar ducting (range extension/radar “holes,” increased false echoes, EO/IR degradation, and relatively improved acoustic propagation). The research section performs a hindcast analysis of strikes on Ukraine from August 1, 2024 to September 15, 2025 (strike counts from official Ukrainian releases/Telegram; weather from ICON and ERA-5 reanalyzes). “Salient strikes” are defined as episodes exceeding at least twice the monthly mean number of UAS. Over that period, 44,390 UAS were launched and 26,701 neutralized (~60%). Of 158 strikes with >100 UAS, 78% occurred under inversion; all 39 strikes with >200 UAS took place during inversion conditions. From February 2025 onward, the correlation is unambiguous: inversion days represent roughly half of the calendar but account for 76% of all launched UAS (February to September). City-level results show that 25/26 (96%) of Kyiv’s largest strikes, 14/15 (93%) in Odesa, and 8/8 (100%) in Lviv coincided with inversions. We infer systematic Russian selection of “inversion windows,” even though reported Ukrainian C-UAS effectiveness (~60%) does not markedly drop on those days. We recommend multi-sensor fusion, operational “risk-window” forecasting, and institutionalizing an “owning-the-weather” approach in C-UAS planning, alongside continued validation of system thresholds and methods.
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