Keywords
air transport
recurrence occurences
safety
statistics
How to Cite
Abstract
The paper presents statistical research results regarding the occurrence of which dangerous aviation events in 1919-2018. The source of the information about the events was the AviationSafetyNetwork website. With the use of Excel 2016 and Statistica v. 12 computer programs, five-time intervals were identified in which hazardous aviation incidents took place.
Characterizing the distribution of these events in all periods, due to the technological advancement and capabilities of airplanes, the distribution of dangerous events in the last three periods was compared. The following tests were used to verify the statistical hypotheses: , Shapiro-Wilk, Brown-Forsythe, Kruskal-Wallis. When choosing the appropriate test, the following factors were taken into account: the type of measurement scale, the dependence/independence of samples, and their number. The standard significance level was assumed to be α = 0.05. The consequences and repeatability of aviation events in the identified time intervals were analyzed. The research questions that were posed were the following: in which seasons of the year, months, days of the month, and days of the week did the most dangerous events deaths occur? How often did dangerous events take place? Was the distribution of events similar in the identified periods?
The results of the conducted research allowed to identify five periods in which hazardous events took place and demonstrate that in particular periods the distribution of hazardous air events in subsequent seasons, months, and days of the week was not the same.
References
Airbus. (2018). A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2017 [Brochure]. https://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/4342.pdf
ATAG. (2016). Aviation benefits beyond borders. Air Transport Action Group. https://www.aviationbenefits.org/media/149654/abbb2016_global-summary_web.pdf
ATAG. (2018). Aviation benefits beyond borders. Air Transport Action Group. https://aviationbenefits.org/media/166344/abbb18_full-report_web.pdf
ATR. (2016). Flight Data Monitoring on ATR Aircraft 2016. ATR Training Center. https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/16T0153_ATR_FDM_2016.pdf.
Aviation Safety Network. (2020, December 20). https://aviation-safety.net/database/
Boeing. (2017). Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents Worldwide Operations 1959-2015. Aviation Safety Boeing Commercial Airplanes. https://skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/3811.pdf
Chen, J., & Yu V. (2018). Relationship between human error intervention strategies and unsafe acts: The role of strategy implement ability. Journal of Air Transport Management 69(C), 112-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.02.009
Chen, L., & Chang, S. (2011). An approach of AHP for human factor analysis in the aircraft icing accident. Procedia Engineering 17, 63-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2011.10.008
Ching-Fu, C., & Shu-Chuan, C. (2012). Scale development of safety management system evaluation for the line industry. Accident Analysis and Prevention 47, 177-181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.01.012
Cichocki, J. (2017). Bezpieczeństwo lotów w lotnictwie komunikacyjnym na przykładzie linii lotniczej Ryanair [Unpublished doctoral dissertation]. War Studies University, Poland.
Dzik, M. (2017). Ryzyko a bezpieczeństwo lotów w lotnictwie sił powietrznych [Unpublished doctoral dissertation]. War Studies University, Poland.
EASA. (2017). Annual Safety Review 2017. European Aviation Safety Agency. https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/general-publications/annual-safety-review-2017
EASA. (2018). Annual Safety Review 2018. European Aviation Safety Agency. https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/general-publications/annual-safety-review-2018
Gill, G. K. (2005). Management of safety in Aviation Organizations: Challenges and Possibilities. Airline Magazine e-zine edition 30.
Grant, E., Salmon P. M., Stevens N. J., Goode N., & Read G. J. (2018). Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction. Safety Science 104, 99-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.12.018
ICAO. (2016). Safety Report. International Civil Aviation Organization. https://www.icao.int/safety/Documents/ICAO_SR%202016_final_13July.pdf
ICAO. (2017). Safety Report. International Civil Aviation Organization. https://www.icao.int/safety/Documents/ICAO_SR_2017_18072017.pdf
ICAO. (2018). Safety Management Manual (4th ed.). International Civil Aviation Organization. https://www.unitingaviation.com/publications/9859/#page=26
ICAO. (2018). Safety Report. International Civil Aviation Organization. https://www.icao.int/safety/Documents/ICAO_SR_2018_30082018.pdf
Kelly, D., & Efthymiou, M. (2019). An analysis of human factors in fifty controlled flight into terrain aviation accidents from 2007 to 2017. Journal of Safety Research 69, 155-165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2019.03.009
Kordian, A. S. (2010). Human Performance & Limitations. KLM Flight Academy.
Kortschot, S. W., & Jamieson, G. A. (2019). Classification of Attentional Tunneling Through Behavioral Indices. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 62(6), 973-986. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720819857266
Kozuba, J. (2014). Selected aspect of the pilot situational awareness. PAFA.
Lu, C., Liming, R., Xiaopeng, L., Fuqiu, L., Chunhui, W., Bo, W., Wenming, Z., & Sha, Q. (2019). A safety influencing factors screening method for space man-machine system. In R. L. Boring (Ed.), Advances in Human Error, Reliability, Resilience, and Performance: Proceedings of the AHFE 2018 International Conference of Human Error Reliability, Resilience, and Performance, July 21-25, 2018, Loews Sapphire Falls Resort at Universal Studios, Orlando, Florida, USA (pp. 211-222). Springer.
Marlinussen, M., & Hunter, D. R. (2010). Aviation Psychology and Human factor, CRC Press.
McFadden, K. L. (1996). Comparing pilot-error accident rates of male and female airline pilots. Omega 24(4), 367-494. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(96)00012-6
Moroney, W. F., & Lilienthal, M. G. (2009). Human factor in Simulation and Training. In D. A. Vincenzi, J. A. Wise, M. Mouloua, & P. Hanckok (Eds.), Human factor in Simulation and Training (pp. 3-38). CRC Press.
National Transportation Safety Board. (2021, January 10) https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/Pages/aviation_stats.aspx
Reason, J. (2009). Managing the risk of organizational accidents. Ashgate.
Skybrary. (2021, January 10). https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Aviation_Safety_Performance_Reports_and_Statistics
Suajata, M., Madan, M., Raghaverda, K., Jagannathan N., & Bhaumik S. K. (2019). Unraveling the cause of an aircraft accident. Engineering Failure Analyses 97, 740-758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2019.01.065
Syed, M. (2017). Metoda czarnej skrzynki: Zaskakująca prawda o błędach i naturze sukcesu, Insignis Media.
Wrigley, S. (2018). Why Planes Crash Case Files: 2001-2003, EQP Books.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.